Tennis · resolved market
ATX Open, Qualification: Claire Liu vs Himeno Sakatsume
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6f423a74770f13e1fa2096401b6d91079282a3a050a3ffa58aaf198f380e1d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liuof Liu, Sakatsume
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sakatsume | 6c | 6,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.49 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…0628backed Sakatsume | 47c | 2,130$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 302 | 41.7%126 W · 176 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Sakatsume | 26c | 1,864$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.45 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Sakatsume | 36c | 1,230$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.34 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked Liu | 58c | 1,173$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.16 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Sakatsume | 27c | 1,124$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Liu | 58c | 712.09$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.1 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…3fb7backed Liu | 73c | 603.11$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ea…99bcbacked Liu | 74c | 541$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.05 | 240 | 60.8%146 W · 94 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…92dfbacked Sakatsume | 38c | 531.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Liu | 66c | 477$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.45 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Sakatsume | 37c | 412.71$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.16 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Sakatsume | 26c | 380$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Sakatsume | 57c | 353.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Sakatsume | 35c | 335.38$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Sakatsume | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Sakatsume | 32c | 312$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Liu | 62c | 239$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…3c33backed Liu | 80c | 209$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Liu | 64c | 206.3$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Liu | 76c | 203.95$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Sakatsume | 34c | 203.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Sakatsume | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 17.9%27 W · 124 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Liu | 58c | 179.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Sakatsume | 32c | 156.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sakatsume | 37c | 156.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…7505backed Sakatsume | 39c | 155.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Sakatsume | 34c | 154.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Liu | 43c | 149.95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Liu | 75c | 147.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 423 | 58.6%248 W · 175 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…2b01backed Liu | 76c | 118.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Sakatsume | 37c | 111.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Liu | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…dea4backed Liu | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Sakatsume | 41c | 95.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7040backed Liu | 58c | 86.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Liu | 64c | 76.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Liu | 45c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 381 | 33.9%129 W · 252 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Sakatsume | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Sakatsume | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Sakatsume | 34c | 30.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Liu | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Liu | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.