CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe70845de2731ab63b35a8c4ba9eadcf007a51028a568922dc9136a3d625d89c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Walczakiof Ursa, Walczaki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Ursa | 55c | 5,900$3,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,244.99 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Walczaki | 45c | 1,925$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.66 | 207 | 43%89 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xece6…c4bfbacked Walczaki | 45c | 1,448$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…d240backed Walczaki | 45c | 1,231$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.22 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Walczaki | 61c | 959.83$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.79 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e947backed Walczaki | 45c | 835.49$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.52 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…c0aebacked Walczaki | 45c | 725.25$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.89 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b21…4b63backed Walczaki | 61c | 578.09$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.39 | 119 | 47.9%57 W · 62 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…b8abbacked Ursa | 55c | 533.99$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.69 | 206 | 43.7%90 W · 116 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Walczaki | 43c | 521.96$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.51 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Ursa | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed Ursa | 57c | 432.81$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.53 | 648 | 54.3%352 W · 296 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ursa | 48c | 395.03$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.61 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccbc…7e80backed Ursa | 55c | 356$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…f540backed Ursa | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Ursa | 38c | 299.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.57 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Ursa | 48c | 278.7$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.74 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9b…3de2backed Walczaki | 44c | 270.54$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…75eebacked Walczaki | 45c | 213.81$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Ursa | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 474 | 47.5%225 W · 249 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…6bfebacked Walczaki | 43c | 161.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…1fbbbacked Walczaki | 44c | 153.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Ursa | 30c | 138.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Walczaki | 44c | 136.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 406 | 39.4%160 W · 246 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Ursa | 45c | 105.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Ursa | 55c | 97.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 370 | 50.5%187 W · 183 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Ursa | 13c | 94.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…3ce5backed Walczaki | 45c | 94.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…6878backed Ursa | 40c | 71.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Walczaki | 45c | 65.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 545 | 43.5%237 W · 308 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Ursa | 54c | 63.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 265 | 46.8%124 W · 141 L | -18.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc007…a0edbacked Ursa | 53c | 60.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Ursa | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 655 | 48.9%320 W · 335 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Ursa | 31c | 55.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Walczaki | 69c | 43.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Ursa | 45c | 41.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Walczaki | 69c | 39.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 164 | 64.6%106 W · 58 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Walczaki | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 446 | 54.9%245 W · 201 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked Walczaki | 63c | 35.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 454 | 50.2%228 W · 226 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Ursa | 48c | 32.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Ursa | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Ursa | 57c | 28.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 762 | 48.4%369 W · 393 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…9b9abacked Ursa | 49c | 25.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 456 | 63.6%290 W · 166 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed Walczaki | 45c | 23.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Ursa | 46c | 22.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf6…c27dbacked Walczaki | 54c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Walczaki | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Walczaki - Map 1 WinnerWalczaki won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Walczaki - Map 2 WinnerWalczaki won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.