College Football · resolved market
Spread: Louisville (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe735217f8b16cfc43e32a84d2b58e19c5b3b7c0d9bc638560f2e794b8f3b9006
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisvilleof Louisville, Kentucky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Louisville | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kentucky | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Louisville | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Kentucky | 52c | 1,394$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.02 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Louisville | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kentucky | 51c | 1,012$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.9 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Kentucky | 52c | 659$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.68 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Kentucky | 52c | 508$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.16 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Kentucky | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kentucky | 52c | 131.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Kentucky | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Louisville | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville (-2.5)this page
- Kentucky vs. LouisvilleLouisville won
- Kentucky vs. Louisville: O/U 46.5Under won
- O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Louisville (-1.5)Louisville won
- Spread: Louisville (-3.5)Louisville won
- Spread: Louisville (-4.5)Louisville won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.