Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-23.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7874aeae0cfe106acb8c56a8eda2bdf721c89c64f8686738a18ce3881d13f50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toledo Rocketsof Michigan State Spartans, Toledo Rockets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 235.52$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Toledo Rockets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Toledo Rockets | 50c | 144$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Toledo Rockets | 50c | 107$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Toledo Rockets | 50c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Toledo Rockets | 48c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Toledo Rockets | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Toledo Rockets | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Toledo Rockets | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toledo Rockets | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 42.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Toledo Rockets | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toledo Rockets | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-23.5)this page
- Toledo Rockets vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- Toledo Rockets vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 150.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.