Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Arthur Fery vs Edward Winter
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe78f84ec675e79db273ebcb95b4a1b6c3cd95b92f09585e66aec527ae437e3fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Feryof Fery, Winter
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Winter | 11c | 2,682$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.22 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Fery | 78c | 778.66$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.36 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Winter | 4c | 509.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Winter | 26c | 478.75$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Fery | 74c | 450$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Winter | 5c | 408$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Winter | 7c | 183$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Winter | 11c | 182.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Fery | 73c | 176.71$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Winter | 27c | 149.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2595…e362backed Winter | 28c | 51.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c8…b387backed Fery | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…883cbacked Fery | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x994d…7ff0backed Fery | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…36f1backed Fery | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…a0aabacked Fery | 72c | 13.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Arthur Fery vs Edward Winterthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Fery vs WinterFery won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.