Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7d2146ed7089a58a62a642cd6c7ef66cb841963d310aa9cb43e499f562e98d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Level UPof Winter Bear, Level UP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,157 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab90…a576backed Winter Bear | 43c | 424.2$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.79 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Level UP | 46c | 167.12$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…cb12backed Level UP | 40c | 165.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.74 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Level UP | 70c | 106$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Level UP | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Level UP | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7f…6e16backed Level UP | 38c | 81.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -59%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Winter Bear | 61c | 66.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -7.3wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Level UP | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Winter Bear | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…d089backed Winter Bear | 40c | 50.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.45per pick | 67cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsWinter Bear won
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP - Game 2 WinnerWinter Bear won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.