Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84cec75e218c0890508206908619eeeee1dd8c3320bb53a85b1074a8a7fca010
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Winter Bearof Winter Bear, Level UP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,123 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Level UP | 46c | 750.3$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.68 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Winter Bear | 47c | 556.87$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…a7d1backed Level UP | 38c | 516$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Winter Bear | 60c | 452.16$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.19 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…03a0backed Winter Bear | 62c | 363$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Winter Bear | 53c | 319.03$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.14 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…8d97backed Level UP | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Level UP | 31c | 248.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…cb12backed Level UP | 41c | 230.46$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16e3…5476backed Level UP | 38c | 211$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…7ed7backed Level UP | 49c | 203.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…45e5backed Level UP | 70c | 188.83$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…946dbacked Winter Bear | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…3afebacked Level UP | 39c | 155.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…404dbacked Winter Bear | 62c | 153$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe09f…f7debacked Level UP | 73c | 152.12$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…483bbacked Winter Bear | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Level UP | 45c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…8923backed Winter Bear | 35c | 142.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…4fb8backed Winter Bear | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9b…99c8backed Winter Bear | 62c | 123$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa4…4a42backed Level UP | 38c | 122$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd816…a60ebacked Level UP | 14c | 103.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eea…b745backed Winter Bear | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa29…c3c6backed Winter Bear | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Winter Bear | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…0a9bbacked Winter Bear | 69c | 99.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Level UP | 39c | 91.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd437…738fbacked Winter Bear | 62c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa633…1cf7backed Winter Bear | 64c | 84.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Winter Bear | 61c | 78.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…c76fbacked Level UP | 68c | 77.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabab…8b3ebacked Winter Bear | 62c | 73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed Level UP | 33c | 72.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -9.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Level UP | 79c | 64.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Winter Bear | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Level UP | 39c | 58.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27e7…643fbacked Level UP | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Level UP | 49c | 54.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0865…3d2cbacked Level UP | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…a576backed Winter Bear | 47c | 48.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd892…515cbacked Winter Bear | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…d8d8backed Level UP | 65c | 46.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…eab3backed Winter Bear | 65c | 46.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Winter Bear | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Winter Bear | 66c | 42.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Winter Bear | 35c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Winter Bear | 61c | 32.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Winter Bear | 47c | 31.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Winter Bear | 47c | 31.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Level UP | 55c | 31.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Winter Bear | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Winter Bear | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Level UP | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP - Game 1 WinnerLevel UP won
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP - Game 2 WinnerWinter Bear won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.