CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Fluxo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8702acb6bfabd80c04e16c619f65337142ec67c7c004354efb18fc97f37a52f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof Astralis, Fluxo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Fluxo | 21c | 13,000$2,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,709.99 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6937…085dbacked Fluxo | 24c | 6,293$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.73 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Astralis | 74c | 4,904$3,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.92 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Fluxo | 18c | 2,478$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.06 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Fluxo | 18c | 2,244$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked Fluxo | 18c | 1,626$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.64 | 214 | 24.8%53 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Fluxo | 13c | 1,000$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Fluxo | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ec…18f4backed Fluxo | 18c | 740.19$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.83 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Fluxo | 29c | 555.55$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.11 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Fluxo | 4c | 470.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Fluxo | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…33debacked Fluxo | 5c | 363.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Astralis | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…a28dbacked Astralis | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Astralis | 80c | 188.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 112 | 69.6%78 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Fluxo | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Fluxo | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Astralis | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Fluxo | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Astralis | 79c | 55.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b3…5411backed Astralis | 74c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.