Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1000 reasons (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe893685ce732a48431e5f72605fbc24affa8a945ff775dd3f45b5404e61904f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, 1000 reasons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed 1000 reasons | 1c | 3,825$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked 1000 reasons | 3c | 1,200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed 1000 reasons | 9c | 916.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed 1000 reasons | 10c | 511$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…e051backed 1000 reasons | 4c | 399.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…ce7fbacked 1000 reasons | 8c | 349.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ae…91d0backed 1000 reasons | 11c | 280.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed 1000 reasons | 7c | 177.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked 1000 reasons | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0621…591cbacked 1000 reasons | 9c | 139.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed 1000 reasons | 13c | 114.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed 1000 reasons | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed 1000 reasons | 14c | 84.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed 1000 reasons | 18c | 58.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f7…fb66backed 1000 reasons | 24c | 46.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 40.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1000 reasons (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1000 reasons - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1000 reasons - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.