Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8bd8c170bdf1e014c2406baea0916e47c009e712baa03c28a7688689c06f9d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 7,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 9c | 2,637$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.76 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 1c | 1,507$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 11c | 1,123$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.72 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked No | 2c | 929.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 71c | 420.27$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.77 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 33c | 335.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.73 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 48c | 326.95$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.62 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 50c | 305.74$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 67c | 296.45$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.62 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 44c | 238.79$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 49c | 213.43$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 52c | 202.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 176.78$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 66c | 175.23$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 174.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 69c | 152.71$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 134.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 76c | 128.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 56c | 111.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 55c | 106.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 92.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 48c | 90.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 74c | 90.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 79c | 89.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 46c | 87.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…634cbacked Yes | 46c | 80.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked Yes | 62c | 77.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 59c | 75.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 73.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 67.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 42c | 67.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 41c | 63.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 54c | 60.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c7…485abacked Yes | 20c | 59.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 73c | 55.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…5e3bbacked No | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +47%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 77c | 49.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 37c | 47.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…23d5backed No | 23c | 43.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 41.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…b011backed Yes | 31c | 41.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed No | 46c | 40.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 38.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 52c | 37.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 74c | 37.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 69c | 35.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb33a…ce7dbacked No | 38c | 33.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 43c | 33.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 45c | 32.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed59…6b7cbacked Yes | 45c | 31.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 50c | 29.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 39c | 29.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…0f31backed Yes | 48c | 29.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 28.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 56c | 26.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567c…70a5backed No | 46c | 26.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…913dbacked Yes | 50c | 24.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 58c | 24.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc30e…1ceabacked No | 58c | 24.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 75c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 64c | 22.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 21.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 56c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…d815backed No | 58c | 18.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 62c | 16.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…5b49backed Yes | 78c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or higher on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.