Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Dayton Flyers vs. George Washington Revolutionaries: O/U 153.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8facbcac73303e31239ab0adf73704e0a9dddab2c8e7e9859f106d8f265f40b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 51c | 5,232$2,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,563.54 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 49c | 5,102$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.94 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…1cd6backed Under | 59c | 297.45$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 48c | 217.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 201.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 41c | 163.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 56c | 132.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 52c | 114.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 46c | 114$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 54c | 107.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Under | 54c | 62.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 225 | 44.9%101 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…6179backed Over | 46c | 62.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 46c | 55.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 53.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 310 | 57.4%178 W · 132 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 195 | 22.1%43 W · 152 L | -36.3wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 45c | 43.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 29.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 26.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dayton Flyers vs. George Washington Revolutionaries: O/U 153.5this page
- Dayton Flyers vs. George Washington RevolutionariesDayton Flyers won
- Dayton Flyers vs. George Washington Revolutionaries: O/U 152.5Under won
- Spread: George Washington Revolutionaries (-2.5)Dayton Flyers won
- Spread: George Washington Revolutionaries (-3.5)Dayton Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.