Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: George Washington Revolutionaries (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48533f881ddb67b8b0560fdaafb4d319f7c1455b1b2eac08a28befc7c1f790c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dayton Flyersof George Washington Revolutionaries, Dayton Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198c…6a94backed George Washington Revolutionaries | 49c | 1,753$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.42 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Dayton Flyers | 51c | 594.39$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.71 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…d58cbacked Dayton Flyers | 55c | 537.85$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.44 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Dayton Flyers | 51c | 499.97$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.99 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Dayton Flyers | 52c | 400$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked George Washington Revolutionaries | 45c | 363.64$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.64 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked George Washington Revolutionaries | 46c | 199.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Dayton Flyers | 51c | 188.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Dayton Flyers | 58c | 171.22$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed George Washington Revolutionaries | 48c | 148.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Dayton Flyers | 56c | 94.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked George Washington Revolutionaries | 46c | 77.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…d5a7backed George Washington Revolutionaries | 53c | 75.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed George Washington Revolutionaries | 48c | 69.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Dayton Flyers | 51c | 49.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Dayton Flyers | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked George Washington Revolutionaries | 47c | 37.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Dayton Flyers | 52c | 34.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Dayton Flyers | 47c | 30.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: George Washington Revolutionaries (-3.5)this page
- Dayton Flyers vs. George Washington RevolutionariesDayton Flyers won
- Dayton Flyers vs. George Washington Revolutionaries: O/U 152.5Under won
- Dayton Flyers vs. George Washington Revolutionaries: O/U 153.5Under won
- Spread: George Washington Revolutionaries (-2.5)Dayton Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.