Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe91d033872569fad9baaa5ebb92f610f0980e8666790026522369a3f126fa680
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 24c | 999.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 851.25$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.18 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 4c | 354.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 250.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 212.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 21c | 156.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 48c | 123$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 56c | 48.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 36c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 49c | 30.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…3a43backed Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 78c | 28.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 56c | 22.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 79c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.