Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe91f2a8b94999b4728d6acb3846aae2128b02f4e0a5050991bbb64e1d7d3fba3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96e8…58f0backed Under | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 44c | 1,092$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.29 | 329 | 39.8%131 W · 198 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Over | 45c | 1,001$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.62 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 56c | 981.59$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.99 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Over | 52c | 887.11$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.81 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Under | 48c | 799.99$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Over | 45c | 628.49$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.67 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed Under | 56c | 455.21$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.92 | 219 | 54.3%119 W · 100 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Over | 41c | 352.45$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed Over | 45c | 267.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.66 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…22b8backed Over | 43c | 218.85$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 17c | 191.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.27per pick | 31cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…8d7dbacked Over | 45c | 183.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.83 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Over | 44c | 113.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 197 | 52.8%104 W · 93 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Over | 42c | 102.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Under | 59c | 75.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…3cfbbacked Over | 70c | 70.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 233 | 48.1%112 W · 121 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5)Weibo Gaming won
- Game Handicap: WB (-2.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+2.5)Weibo Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsWeibo Gaming won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 WinnerWeibo Gaming won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 WinnerWeibo Gaming won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 WinnerWeibo Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.