NFL · resolved market
Will the Dolphins and Jets combine for 45 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94e070b4d491609309f5214564a22ad5b1bcecc1261b8a69c8d6b856bee4852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Over | 51c | 672.5$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.9 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Under | 49c | 298.07$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.05 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa1…6fc8backed Under | 47c | 272.06$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f59…052ebacked Under | 50c | 202$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 50c | 200.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…4ecbbacked Over | 53c | 189$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…9449backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…c6e3backed Under | 46c | 22.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed Under | 48c | 20.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Dolphins and Jets combine for 45 or more points?this page
- Will the 49ers and Bears combine for 45 or more points?Over won
- Will the Buccaneers and Raiders combine for 47 or more points?Under won
- Will the Cardinals and Seahawks combine for 45 or more points?Over won
- Will the Chiefs and Chargers combine for 44 or more points?Under won
- Will the Saints and Giants combine for 47 or more points?Under won
- Will the Steelers and Browns combine for 44 or more points?Under won
- Will the Vikings and Falcons combine for 46 or more points?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.