South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Paranaense vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe95dce6429cc4d1cc351b9d2645d1ae244123f13afb3bffa8d1cfd8b88e26494
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 31c | 16,130$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,129.61 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 7,838$5,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,386.45 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 7,494$5,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,170.89 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 16c | 2,232$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.75 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 69c | 1,370$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.42 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…d38ebacked Over | 43c | 548.94$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…609fbacked Under | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 6cpaid | +221.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 69c | 351.61$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.61 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 79c | 252.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.33 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 203.61$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.53 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Over | 24c | 184.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 60c | 162.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 88 | 87.5%77 W · 11 L | +19.9wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Over | 32c | 154.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed Over | 32c | 148.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 69c | 142.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Over | 47c | 117.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 69c | 70.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 71c | 68.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 69c | 62.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 47c | 61.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 70c | 56.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 80c | 49.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Over | 32c | 48.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 63c | 47.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 69c | 47.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 60c | 33.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 69c | 26.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 63c | 23.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 69c | 19.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Paranaense vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5this page
- CA Paranaense vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Paranaense vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Paranaense vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Paranaense vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)EC Vitória won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-2.5)CA Paranaense won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.