Cricket · resolved market
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals - Who wins the toss?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9753d5660dbe912fffc999aa8a060191ff2d9dc97ac229ef7313a83ee4bb2dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mumbai Indiansof Mumbai Indians, Rajasthan Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69a6…4b30backed Rajasthan Royals | 49c | 786.03$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.15 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…6c2cbacked Rajasthan Royals | 50c | 677.06$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.17 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…a3a4backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 589.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.13 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…3275backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 261.59$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.79 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd841…64cabacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ce…6da3backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb7…f6e3backed Rajasthan Royals | 50c | 100.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…f49abacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 160 | 43.1%69 W · 91 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537f…b914backed Rajasthan Royals | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f24…e803backed Rajasthan Royals | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…47aabacked Rajasthan Royals | 45c | 44.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e3…f804backed Rajasthan Royals | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0c…ca14backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd183…87aebacked Mumbai Indians | 50c | 39.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…aa71backed Rajasthan Royals | 51c | 39.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…e387backed Mumbai Indians | 47c | 33.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b49…1ee2backed Rajasthan Royals | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…cc6ebacked Rajasthan Royals | 49c | 30.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…a74fbacked Rajasthan Royals | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…6deebacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 30.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…6857backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…d038backed Rajasthan Royals | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 116 | 25%29 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…f9d3backed Mumbai Indians | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af1…df2cbacked Rajasthan Royals | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde47…40d0backed Mumbai Indians | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb49…c851backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals - Who wins the toss?this page
- Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan RoyalsRajasthan Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.