WNBA · resolved market
Sky vs Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9c1d7b1acabf801a321821a6c71c80f97a59cc875a3e4c7ef64bdb3330931bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Sky, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Sky | 27c | 20,033$5,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,445.79 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Mercury | 73c | 11,285$8,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,075.66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mercury | 73c | 8,846$6,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,388.28 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Sky | 26c | 2,907$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.38 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Mercury | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Sky | 72c | 1,940$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Mercury | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mercury | 73c | 844$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.83 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Sky | 80c | 826$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.61 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mercury | 74c | 640$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mercury | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sky | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sky | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Mercury | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sky | 33c | 285$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Sky | 71c | 160$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.01 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Sky | 80c | 138.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 71cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Sky | 63c | 129$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Mercury | 20c | 126$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Sky | 27c | 104.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d5…5684backed Mercury | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Sky | 27c | 99.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Mercury | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Mercury | 75c | 80.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Sky | 29c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Sky | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mercury | 70c | 25.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.