Olympics · resolved market
Will David Popovici (ROU) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9c3a5b9c5207021b951bc263971559c4c19d5d6cf7ad25131133362e31a1461
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b3c…f234backed No | 10c | 1,333$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked No | 25c | 508.23$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.49 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 67c | 349.98$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.99 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 61c | 333$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.87 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 16c | 249.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe28a…8072backed No | 21c | 220$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8464…0ce6backed No | 20c | 145.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766a…4f11backed No | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…d760backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…cd16backed No | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed No | 53c | 26.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Yes | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…6ec2backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will David Popovici (ROU) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle?this page
- Will Duncan Scott (GBR) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle?No won
- Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle?No won
- Will Luke Hobson (USA) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle?No won
- Will Matthew Richards (GBR) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.