Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Yue Yuan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9f65609e6c331f38b55537a9539c0d2f8964c81d7cacf29ce6151bb48d8a7bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yuanof Carle, Yuan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Carle | 48c | 779.62$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.12 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yuan | 44c | 406.91$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.07 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yuan | 56c | 404$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.84 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Carle | 37c | 312.69$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Carle | 58c | 282$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.95 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Yuan | 55c | 218.94$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.14 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Carle | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Yuan | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yuan | 54c | 197.28$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.12 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yuan | 63c | 121.18$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Yuan | 79c | 118.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Yuan | 60c | 79.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yuan | 79c | 50.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ef…18a5backed Carle | 73c | 42.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…d72fbacked Yuan | 60c | 31.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yuan | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7109…a765backed Carle | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Yuan | 60c | 17.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Yuan | 60c | 17.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdc…07acbacked Carle | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…b6d5backed Carle | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.