College Football · resolved market
Ball State vs. Ohio
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9f78df254c41457dc7865df52adf87ec076ca4a7b6bfe27602334f949bca0bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ohioof Ball State, Ohio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Ball State | 0c | 12,852$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f0…974dbacked Ball State | 14c | 7,360$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x346d…6cdabacked Ball State | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa586…86f5backed Ball State | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Ball State | 13c | 258.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ball State | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66db…7afbbacked Ball State | 12c | 211.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Ball State | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…2261backed Ball State | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Ball State | 13c | 114.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3426…c7b7backed Ball State | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Ball State | 14c | 96.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…a3a1backed Ball State | 15c | 88.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfce…afc5backed Ball State | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.