South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea7f74a59cc064bb6550e8bbdc727de94687b2ec02d007ab67977e55eabeb736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coritiba FBCof Red Bull Bragantino, Coritiba FBC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc1…bdd8backed Red Bull Bragantino | 37c | 13,582$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Coritiba FBC | 63c | 5,256$3,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Coritiba FBC | 68c | 2,399$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.32 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Coritiba FBC | 63c | 2,150$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Coritiba FBC | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Coritiba FBC | 63c | 782.14$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.39 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Coritiba FBC | 64c | 779.51$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.63 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8c…191cbacked Coritiba FBC | 68c | 367.65$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0962…6e40backed Red Bull Bragantino | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Coritiba FBC | 62c | 235.48$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Coritiba FBC | 64c | 230.05$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Coritiba FBC | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Coritiba FBC | 63c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Coritiba FBC | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Coritiba FBC | 65c | 119.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Red Bull Bragantino | 32c | 116.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Coritiba FBC | 66c | 105.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 83 | 75.9%63 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Red Bull Bragantino | 34c | 64.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Coritiba FBC | 75c | 52.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Coritiba FBC | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Red Bull Bragantino | 33c | 32.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Coritiba FBC | 68c | 31.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Coritiba FBC | 66c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Coritiba FBC | 68c | 21.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Coritiba FBC | 64c | 20.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…25fbbacked Coritiba FBC | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Coritiba FBC | 65c | 19.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Coritiba FBC | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 60 | 78.3%47 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 80cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)this page
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Coritiba FBC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Coritiba FBC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Coritiba FBC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Coritiba FBC: Coritiba FBC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Coritiba FBC: Coritiba FBC O/U 2.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 0.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Coritiba FBC (-1.5)Red Bull Bragantino won
- Spread: Coritiba FBC (-2.5)Red Bull Bragantino won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.