NHL · resolved market
AHL: Hershey Bears vs. Hartford Wolf Pack
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea814053014486f8d98d6a0a6a045d408785d1dfb98b2bada6c60a243905d132
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hartford Wolf Packof Hershey Bears, Hartford Wolf Pack
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,589 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Hartford Wolf Pack | 44c | 5,141$2,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,898.43 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…172fbacked Hershey Bears | 57c | 1,477$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.89 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Hershey Bears | 58c | 1,412$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.79 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Hershey Bears | 55c | 777$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.35 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Hartford Wolf Pack | 45c | 651.21$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.31 | 64 | 14.1%9 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f2…a822backed Hershey Bears | 56c | 625$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Hershey Bears | 55c | 556.57$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Hershey Bears | 54c | 191.24$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Hershey Bears | 54c | 162.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Hartford Wolf Pack | 44c | 136.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Hershey Bears | 56c | 130$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…bd58backed Hartford Wolf Pack | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Hershey Bears | 56c | 119.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Hershey Bears | 57c | 115.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Hartford Wolf Pack | 69c | 108.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Hershey Bears | 54c | 104.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Hershey Bears | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Hershey Bears | 33c | 68.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Hershey Bears | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Hershey Bears | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Hershey Bears | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…cba7backed Hershey Bears | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Hershey Bears | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Hershey Bears | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.