Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea9c9853e8e74be48f111a6515e908dca8c587722c766d7e9651b86c2d69df17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 13c | 2,083$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.3 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 37c | 371.94$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.8 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d8…d22cbacked Yes | 5c | 337.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 31c | 311.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 61c | 174.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691e…d59dbacked Yes | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a7…3a78backed No | 35c | 46.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…6143backed No | 25c | 44.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702a…46ddbacked No | 45c | 43.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…4073backed No | 38c | 42.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…e060backed No | 42c | 40.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a9…440ebacked No | 35c | 39.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…0e6fbacked No | 35c | 35.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae3a…e829backed No | 36c | 31.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…b332backed No | 38c | 28.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…3a0abacked No | 70c | 26.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdc…7b74backed No | 57c | 24.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…971ebacked No | 58c | 22.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…baa6backed No | 75c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03b…18d5backed No | 80c | 18.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…e5c1backed Yes | 78c | 15.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or below on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.