College Football · resolved market
Spread: Houston (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeae73b5bd4b23edbbc2ae3e51987e9aaa5fa1081435bc5b2ca9f76abe68c21cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TCUof Houston, TCU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ae5…b896backed TCU | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Houston | 48c | 1,719$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.23 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Houston | 48c | 1,526$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.48 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed TCU | 52c | 1,400$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Houston | 48c | 771.15$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.15 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked TCU | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Houston | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed TCU | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Houston | 48c | 79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Houston | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked TCU | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Houston | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston (-1.5)this page
- TCU vs. HoustonTCU won
- TCU vs. Houston: 1H MoneylineTCU won
- TCU vs. Houston: O/U 55.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.