Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Rybakina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaf5cea240c51fa2fa38e30ab922be9a5e2fdd0f9df8b2aad0023cf0759c71af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zhengof Zheng, Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Rybakina | 2c | 2,102$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 108 | 15.7%17 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Rybakina | 14c | 2,043$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.71 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Rybakina | 68c | 395.88$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.84 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Zheng | 19c | 314.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.95 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zheng | 53c | 299.63$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.58 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rybakina | 64c | 265.16$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.15 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…8769backed Zheng | 74c | 164.1$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Rybakina | 16c | 136.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc05e…c64dbacked Zheng | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Rybakina | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Zheng | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…104bbacked Rybakina | 79c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…3c6fbacked Rybakina | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…0b66backed Rybakina | 67c | 29.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 222 | 62.6%139 W · 83 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddeb…8cb9backed Rybakina | 79c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Zheng | 49c | 23.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b9…0a0dbacked Rybakina | 80c | 22.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Rybakina | 78c | 20.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…1be3backed Rybakina | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…fd9fbacked Rybakina | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…58c1backed Rybakina | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…b444backed Rybakina | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6724…0e17backed Rybakina | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e2…48a0backed Rybakina | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c3…78dfbacked Rybakina | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f40…cefdbacked Rybakina | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…16c8backed Rybakina | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…beaabacked Rybakina | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…85bbbacked Rybakina | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…8e32backed Rybakina | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a9…c2f9backed Rybakina | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c57…d1d7backed Rybakina | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +21%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Rybakinathis page
- Qatar Total Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena RybakinaRybakina won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5)Zheng won
- Zheng vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Zheng vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Zheng vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.