Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb028c650921a6dfcee6e6df6c8ebb73e20990655e594459b16e18fdde1d61a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb13c…4af2backed Yes | 9c | 12,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…6757backed Yes | 8c | 12,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.97 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…f211backed Yes | 9c | 8,850$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…38cebacked Yes | 25c | 4,014$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…3111backed Yes | 20c | 3,825$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51f…ad30backed No | 75c | 1,337$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fc…7af3backed No | 75c | 1,325$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde0…f2f1backed No | 80c | 1,310$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…50adbacked No | 75c | 1,297$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…fb78backed No | 80c | 1,266$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…410ebacked No | 80c | 1,249$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 996.22$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 20c | 468.44$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 416.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 411.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 25c | 300.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 14c | 294$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 224.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 36c | 201.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 199.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 21c | 196.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 182.95$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 20c | 182.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…ac2bbacked Yes | 28c | 172.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 9c | 163.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 73c | 135$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 115.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 9c | 109.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 23c | 103.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 95.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 13c | 86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 85.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 22c | 73.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 71.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 79c | 63.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 46.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…1edebacked No | 78c | 41.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 26c | 39.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 30c | 37.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 67c | 34.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 34.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 78c | 31.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 29.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 23.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…58bdbacked Yes | 49c | 20.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 71c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 78c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed No | 76c | 17.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3479…4582backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 66c | 16.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 13.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C or below on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.