Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f308cdd347256d58d09abc02fb6f9b3920abe1f4e952029c22967f0487fcbe9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 1c | 1,924$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 10c | 1,883$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.7 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 18c | 992.05$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.4 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 404.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 72c | 263.02$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 38c | 237.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.78 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 52c | 233.12$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.26 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…4aa3backed No | 43c | 229.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 51c | 169.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 139.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 47c | 135$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 63c | 128.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…54a4backed Yes | 67c | 105.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 103.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…a07bbacked Yes | 64c | 92.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 66c | 87.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 84.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 77.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 18c | 77.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 76.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 32c | 72.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 24c | 71.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 30c | 66.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 63.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 61.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa043…09d1backed Yes | 34c | 58.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 35c | 56.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8c…d055backed Yes | 32c | 51.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…062dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 45c | 39.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 51c | 37.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 41c | 36.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 55c | 36.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed No | 80c | 35.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 67c | 33.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 32.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 61c | 30.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c3…1503backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 42c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 25.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 59c | 25.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 58c | 25.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 22.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…b41bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 74c | 14.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C or below on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.