Tennis · resolved market
ITF Astana: Dan Brand vs Ofek Shimanov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb16f514ca580a5d1e9089de0abb654707aef0c5687500d0102b494250704d29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dan Brandof Dan Brand, Ofek Shimanov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Ofek Shimanov | 6c | 1,030$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Dan Brand | 40c | 197.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.64 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ofek Shimanov | 55c | 139.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…a9c6backed Ofek Shimanov | 35c | 131.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Ofek Shimanov | 36c | 127.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…7533backed Dan Brand | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Dan Brand | 52c | 97.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Dan Brand | 39c | 88.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Ofek Shimanov | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Ofek Shimanov | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe197…71ebbacked Dan Brand | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Dan Brand | 66c | 73.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Ofek Shimanov | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…8580backed Dan Brand | 66c | 46.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…b710backed Dan Brand | 67c | 44.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Dan Brand | 33c | 43.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Dan Brand | 36c | 34.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9907backed Ofek Shimanov | 39c | 33.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.