Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb1c31b442c4b0d1730cb4c130e468ad9f6e0f2cb6147ec3eaed46d33bd993a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 41c | 6,531$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646.87 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 5,186$3,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 68c | 2,289$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.88 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Yes | 19c | 1,163$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 36c | 688.01$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.04 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 63c | 609$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.11 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 64c | 606.13$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.21 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 60c | 541.85$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.74 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yes | 11c | 449.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 411.91$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 40c | 348$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 24c | 307.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 42c | 230.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 42c | 220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Yes | 11c | 178.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 58c | 153.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb432…6665backed Yes | 17c | 111.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 17c | 94.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 43c | 88.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 43c | 57.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Yes | 34c | 35.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 67c | 29.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Yes | 40c | 25.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed No | 60c | 22.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked No | 60c | 16.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?No won
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-01-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.