Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x494739ef83a9316662cdb3451dc8a1a22f841950bfe73caeee040725e423ede7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked No | 34c | 6,353$2,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,186.83 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 57c | 3,784$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.72 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 64c | 2,050$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 58c | 1,739$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.46 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,695$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.69 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 39c | 1,520$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.06 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 1,454$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.36 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed No | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 74c | 865.36$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.29 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked No | 43c | 788.37$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.94 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked No | 43c | 635.48$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb454…8b1cbacked Yes | 70c | 579.74$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 36c | 554.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.46 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed No | 43c | 505.7$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed No | 60c | 503.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed No | 6c | 442.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 41c | 396.61$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.08 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 33c | 383.56$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.3 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 29c | 319.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 42c | 294.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Yes | 33c | 250.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.92 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 43c | 235$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed No | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked No | 5c | 215.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked No | 9c | 199.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 57c | 164.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…8b83backed No | 43c | 158.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0be2backed No | 43c | 143$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 63c | 127.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed No | 34c | 106.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…3d22backed No | 43c | 105.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…fb4cbacked No | 20c | 93.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…ca88backed No | 43c | 64.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 33c | 63.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Yes | 64c | 60.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…45d9backed No | 43c | 49.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…993dbacked No | 42c | 47.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 62c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9276…081ebacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 64c | 39.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Yes | 55c | 37.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Yes | 59c | 21.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f4…3c57backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-01-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.