MLB · resolved market
ALDS: Guardians vs. Tigers Game 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb246ebc19ee1952cad6c227276783cc9001ed06a6c9adcccaae4051e6aebe93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Guardians, Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa34e…895ebacked Tigers | 9c | 4,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Guardians | 77c | 1,702$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.9 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Guardians | 58c | 1,300$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Tigers | 41c | 1,213$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.16 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Tigers | 42c | 1,013$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Guardians | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Tigers | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Guardians | 56c | 999.95$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Guardians | 57c | 744.06$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Tigers | 36c | 344.52$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.08 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Tigers | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca0a…e620backed Guardians | 59c | 171.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Tigers | 18c | 156.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…01b3backed Guardians | 57c | 152.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0c…31f7backed Tigers | 46c | 152.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…7cd6backed Tigers | 44c | 152.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…e10fbacked Guardians | 57c | 151.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…20debacked Tigers | 44c | 121.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…6654backed Guardians | 59c | 121.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…696abacked Guardians | 59c | 120.34$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d9c2backed Tigers | 44c | 116.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…3368backed Tigers | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed8…9cb4backed Tigers | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa858…9d06backed Tigers | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…926ebacked Guardians | 58c | 112.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc68…b436backed Guardians | 58c | 112.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dad…36c2backed Guardians | 58c | 111.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ab…93c8backed Tigers | 44c | 111.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…5fc6backed Guardians | 59c | 105.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051e…869abacked Tigers | 44c | 104.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad1…850dbacked Tigers | 44c | 104.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…a62abacked Guardians | 58c | 104.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9e96backed Guardians | 59c | 103.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0672…7b8cbacked Tigers | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…7664backed Tigers | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe285…127ebacked Guardians | 58c | 99.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…8845backed Tigers | 44c | 97.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f15…8e4cbacked Guardians | 58c | 97.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…38fdbacked Tigers | 43c | 90.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99f…4840backed Tigers | 46c | 89.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…67dcbacked Guardians | 57c | 89.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…6146backed Tigers | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…8ca9backed Tigers | 47c | 72.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093e…0c34backed Guardians | 57c | 71.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cd…a449backed Guardians | 59c | 71.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…f41cbacked Tigers | 44c | 69.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b0…42edbacked Tigers | 47c | 67.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…595cbacked Guardians | 57c | 66.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd6…d44abacked Guardians | 58c | 65.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…6f49backed Tigers | 44c | 65.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…cf0dbacked Guardians | 59c | 64.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff3…1cd7backed Tigers | 44c | 63.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ad…4c1cbacked Tigers | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Guardians | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…f6febacked Tigers | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1457…9d9abacked Guardians | 59c | 44.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…9477backed Tigers | 44c | 43.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…3af3backed Guardians | 59c | 41.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a04…117ebacked Tigers | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc048…022cbacked Guardians | 59c | 34.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc638…f078backed Tigers | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…2527backed Tigers | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…13d6backed Guardians | 59c | 33.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…5c22backed Tigers | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c13…0a1dbacked Tigers | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…d08abacked Guardians | 59c | 30.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a6…c314backed Guardians | 59c | 30.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…b48ebacked Guardians | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2a…2d28backed Tigers | 46c | 25.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…1a3ebacked Guardians | 59c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea76…a0b1backed Guardians | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…4a93backed Guardians | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…4285backed Guardians | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.