Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb6bcd8c3fd102a9debc4393a02b4f24420b16a9008d092ffa9ef92d617405a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 8c | 2,259$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.44 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…86e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,640$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked No | 73c | 444.4$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 26c | 160.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 74c | 146.5$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…7c4fbacked Yes | 31c | 117.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 64c | 58.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-08-15?No won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.