Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x033630652c2c8c8cb8884be08896e7fb2cc3e417b48fc7c0fe0798e1ce7340ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 3c | 3,338$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 4c | 3,251$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed No | 1c | 2,367$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 4c | 1,211$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed No | 2c | 1,028$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 10c | 1,022$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.15 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…b0b9backed Yes | 36c | 806.36$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +167.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 12c | 744.95$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed No | 2c | 587.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed No | 5c | 442$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 6c | 425.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 4c | 415.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 7c | 280.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 64c | 250.17$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.63 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 64c | 223.2$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.85 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked No | 16c | 155$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…ffc3backed No | 64c | 117.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…ce9bbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 29c | 37.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbae…c6d3backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 56c | 25.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 61c | 24.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…53c9backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…7e76backed Yes | 59c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…30aabacked Yes | 77c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-08-15?No won
- Will Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.