Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0970cb96b57034d6d14ded9859346d903d967588ab523537aaf8f5d153e3ba3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 2c | 1,494$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 3c | 1,260$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Yes | 2c | 936.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…344fbacked Yes | 39c | 910.26$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 62c | 852.71$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.03 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 20c | 772.27$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.58 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 3c | 525.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 483.68$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.8 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 61c | 455.11$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.49 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 61c | 409$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 31c | 355.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 38c | 242.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 38c | 219.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 62c | 192.93$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 180$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 69c | 119.96$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…ca43backed Yes | 38c | 118.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…63a5backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…56b1backed No | 67c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 39c | 26.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 75c | 25.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 68c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?No won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.