Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ivory vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb943d25144eda216ce351e00e4d58ac9d43d7bcb9bf235f8e4106e20ac88fdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yangon Galacticosof Ivory, Yangon Galacticos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ivory | 49c | 2,890$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.8 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Yangon Galacticos | 52c | 2,824$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.26 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Ivory | 8c | 179.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ivory | 23c | 133.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yangon Galacticos | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Yangon Galacticos | 74c | 83.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Ivory | 32c | 78.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Yangon Galacticos | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Ivory | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da1…e6dfbacked Ivory | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yangon Galacticos | 43c | 47.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yangon Galacticos | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1686…cf5abacked Yangon Galacticos | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 3 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Yangon Galacticos (BO5) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia PlayoffsYangon Galacticos won
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 WinnerYangon Galacticos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.