Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec056a88eede73b1ce011e9ff109ac92ec250b9c0b43f89868a10f122e9d41f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 427.06$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 9c | 314.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 253.71$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 220.45$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 19c | 216.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 17c | 170.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 16c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 38c | 136.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 29c | 88.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 70.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed No | 73c | 64.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 63.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 33c | 57.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 55.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 55.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb47…c536backed Yes | 39c | 54.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 63c | 43.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 40.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 36.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 37c | 34.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 44c | 25.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or below on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.