Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9975d737fcefc13e0d4b02ce6cb74bd6b9ba891be529e7f356814e24ed2958ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 505.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 14c | 450.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 6c | 240.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed Yes | 12c | 219.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 6c | 196.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…fc1abacked Yes | 53c | 188.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 148.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…a818backed Yes | 11c | 135.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…423ebacked Yes | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 80c | 124.22$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 22c | 107.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 17c | 105.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 14c | 95.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Yes | 54c | 92.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 35c | 88.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 88.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 77c | 79.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 17c | 72.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 69.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 69.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 47c | 63.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 28c | 54.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c52…0d1abacked Yes | 30c | 49.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…6cf6backed No | 44c | 43.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 73c | 40.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed No | 50c | 37.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 33.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 72c | 22.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 78c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 66c | 15.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or below on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.