Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Kasatkina vs Mertens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec0cd372c0a5684b00680bf5479ebb948b5c4baaaf9bff06b0ee81a3c847597a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kasatkinaof Kasatkina, Mertens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kasatkina | 76c | 192.96$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Mertens | 34c | 133.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Mertens | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Kasatkina | 32c | 98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Kasatkina | 32c | 82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…08d0backed Kasatkina | 30c | 46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kasatkina | 63c | 42.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2882…3724backed Mertens | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Mertens | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…7941backed Mertens | 69c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…753bbacked Kasatkina | 31c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Mertens | 29c | 36.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…1be3backed Mertens | 70c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Mertens | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked Mertens | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca0a…4cfcbacked Mertens | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0f…0e3cbacked Mertens | 69c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67de…1d9bbacked Mertens | 68c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…409ebacked Mertens | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Mertens | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d56backed Mertens | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…d6c3backed Mertens | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mertens | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa63…0454backed Mertens | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Mertens | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e21…4275backed Mertens | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…82d0backed Mertens | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…8a5ebacked Mertens | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b2…9c54backed Mertens | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c5…5ff4backed Mertens | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…dd55backed Mertens | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8b…2f4ebacked Mertens | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edb…7fd6backed Mertens | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x334c…01a1backed Mertens | 68c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…20e3backed Mertens | 68c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf4…e21bbacked Mertens | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c57…d1d7backed Mertens | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +21%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f40…cefdbacked Mertens | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b60…6693backed Mertens | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…e404backed Mertens | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 61cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…c210backed Mertens | 72c | 14.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Kasatkina vs Mertensthis page
- Kasatkina vs. Mertens: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Kasatkina vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Kasatkina vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Kasatkina vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Kasatkina vs. Mertens: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Qatar Total Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Elise MertensKasatkina won
- Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Kasatkina (+1.5)Kasatkina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.