Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Shelton
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec40114f8f0b42605e55e22a9e77b04fb55401a593382d7690cafd4e6ed766ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sheltonof Bergs, Shelton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Bergs | 33c | 2,989$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.53 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c45…8652backed Shelton | 67c | 1,230$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e495backed Shelton | 68c | 690$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…55e5backed Shelton | 67c | 373$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…d9b2backed Shelton | 67c | 358.21$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Bergs | 32c | 350$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5e…8819backed Shelton | 67c | 343.28$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe9…7aaabacked Shelton | 66c | 305$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…9582backed Shelton | 66c | 252.37$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…e8d3backed Shelton | 67c | 240$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Shelton | 70c | 237.42$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 205 | 65.4%134 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…82ebbacked Bergs | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Bergs | 34c | 162$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Shelton | 60c | 156.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bergs | 31c | 150.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Bergs | 34c | 118$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Bergs | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bergs | 29c | 78.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Bergs | 35c | 41.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Bergs | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dc…c980backed Shelton | 69c | 30.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 70 | 75.7%53 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…456cbacked Shelton | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Shelton | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Sheltonthis page
- Bergs vs. Shelton: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- National Bank Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ben SheltonBen Shelton won
- Set 2 Winner: Bergs vs SheltonShelton won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5)Shelton won
- Zizou Bergs vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.