South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec52ae1013b79055079e25cdc101289788ef4cfd377a417b954ba972b4c33f5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 58c | 25,000$14,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,500 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 42c | 25,000$10,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,500 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 61c | 1,536$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.78 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…5fd2backed Yes | 50c | 1,046$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae6…c165backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 888$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.39 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 791.5$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.44 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 52c | 785.94$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.51 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 44c | 557$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.19 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…5b1fbacked Yes | 59c | 425.62$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 50c | 359.29$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.13 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 42c | 240.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 57c | 176.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 41c | 149.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Yes | 56c | 144$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 36c | 83.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8b…b3c3backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 58c | 68.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 49c | 65.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…a2d3backed Yes | 58c | 64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 41c | 61.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 58c | 44.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd83b…4236backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will CF Monterrey vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.