Mls · resolved market
Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec7cbd185727c810571f718348c3e676301a9a654ed243fcbba2ebd0f5e0b7b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego FCof San Diego FC, Austin FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1c8…d919backed Austin FC | 66c | 843.65$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +184.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked San Diego FC | 37c | 363.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.17 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked San Diego FC | 35c | 284.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.79 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed San Diego FC | 55c | 210.11$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.55 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Austin FC | 35c | 208.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Austin FC | 64c | 148.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego FC | 34c | 141$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Austin FC | 63c | 133.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Austin FC | 43c | 131.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed San Diego FC | 35c | 107.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked San Diego FC | 36c | 87.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Austin FC | 45c | 79.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked San Diego FC | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed San Diego FC | 27c | 59.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked San Diego FC | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Austin FC | 70c | 51.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed San Diego FC | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Austin FC | 37c | 49.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked San Diego FC | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Austin FC | 66c | 41.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Austin FC | 66c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed San Diego FC | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed San Diego FC | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed San Diego FC | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…7882backed San Diego FC | 36c | 28.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed San Diego FC | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked San Diego FC | 72c | 23.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Austin FC | 67c | 20.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed San Diego FC | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)this page
- San Diego FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- San Diego FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.