Mls · resolved market
San Diego FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bd4aed2fc39c6401b24925b1290442d59310abbe4c8d54328aa0599e0f85ee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 5,881$3,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,272.61 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 4,000$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,220 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 44c | 909.1$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.1 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 54c | 667.13$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.33 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 538$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.66 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Over | 56c | 461.42$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.32 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 44c | 444.96$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.18 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 68c | 422.81$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 42c | 331.39$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.66 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…2120backed Under | 56c | 303.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 38c | 271.31$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 55c | 223.15$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.73 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 44c | 222.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.78 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 66c | 217.82$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 46c | 216.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 74c | 182.5$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 36c | 174$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 45c | 155.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 72c | 139.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 44c | 130.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 44c | 123$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…810cbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 44c | 102.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 64c | 102.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Under | 55c | 96.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 72c | 83.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 41c | 77.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…99a1backed Over | 45c | 71.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 67.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 43c | 62.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 31c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 67c | 60.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 32c | 58.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 68c | 58.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 54c | 56.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 30c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 30c | 53.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 49c | 45.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 57c | 39.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Under | 56c | 35.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Under | 56c | 32.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 30.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Over | 72c | 13.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 73c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5this page
- San Diego FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- San Diego FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.