NHL · resolved market
AHL: Rochester Americans vs. Syracuse Crunch
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec904196c37bdd87d434e84688e6862d6947bab79b7e95019fbe2aab2a47760d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rochester Americansof Rochester Americans, Syracuse Crunch
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Syracuse Crunch | 55c | 3,269$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.1 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Rochester Americans | 45c | 1,559$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.7 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Syracuse Crunch | 58c | 1,340$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.45 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rochester Americans | 45c | 815.28$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.82 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Rochester Americans | 41c | 577$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.43 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Rochester Americans | 42c | 375$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.25 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Rochester Americans | 45c | 360$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Rochester Americans | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Rochester Americans | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Rochester Americans | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Rochester Americans | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Syracuse Crunch | 53c | 106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Syracuse Crunch | 53c | 74.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Rochester Americans | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Syracuse Crunch | 53c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Rochester Americans | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Rochester Americans | 43c | 45.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Rochester Americans | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…56c5backed Rochester Americans | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Rochester Americans | 56c | 34.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Rochester Americans | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Rochester Americans | 45c | 32.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2e…bf82backed Rochester Americans | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Rochester Americans | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…080dbacked Rochester Americans | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Rochester Americans | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.