Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team NS vs Recrent Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeca74bddbd527cf8298928260c698a0e1be9baefb7d1bc2a4fdaed157b263d85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team NSof Team NS, Recrent Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed Recrent Team | 0c | 46,203$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +54%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Recrent Team | 53c | 1,032$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.84 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Recrent Team | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team NS | 31c | 921.22$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.26 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Recrent Team | 75c | 723.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.28 | 224 | 61.2%137 W · 87 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Team NS | 54c | 453.45$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.59 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Recrent Team | 52c | 452.86$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.3 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…86e1backed Team NS | 46c | 431.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.46 | 242 | 44.6%108 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Team NS | 47c | 424.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.43 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc386…386fbacked Team NS | 25c | 329.66$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Team NS | 25c | 274.18$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.64 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Recrent Team | 27c | 202.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Team NS | 39c | 194.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.87 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Recrent Team | 44c | 150.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Recrent Team | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Recrent Team | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Recrent Team | 19c | 124$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Recrent Team | 66c | 118$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Recrent Team | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…5922backed Team NS | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Recrent Team | 53c | 75.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Team NS | 42c | 59.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Recrent Team | 44c | 57.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team NS | 53c | 46.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…2450backed Team NS | 32c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Team NS | 29c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…8df6backed Recrent Team | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…f376backed Recrent Team | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3724…c59abacked Team NS | 47c | 29.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Team NS | 55c | 28.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Team NS | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Team NS | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…9c5bbacked Recrent Team | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team NS vs Recrent Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team NS vs Recrent Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group ATeam NS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.