CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: WATERMELON vs 33 (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecacb2fae2fbbe79424d6b145bd18e324ffbdc4d9b85b8b94411d32b06966df5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- WATERMELONof WATERMELON, 33
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked 33 | 1c | 2,400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 101 | 11.9%12 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed 33 | 2c | 2,300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 6.5%5 W · 72 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed 33 | 53c | 2,159$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.67 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked 33 | 1c | 1,600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +95%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed WATERMELON | 62c | 1,500$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed 33 | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed WATERMELON | 40c | 525$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 388 | 35.8%139 W · 249 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked WATERMELON | 45c | 520.19$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.71 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked WATERMELON | 51c | 417.86$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.16 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed 33 | 51c | 331$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.81 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed 33 | 39c | 181.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed WATERMELON | 65c | 152.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d82…ffb2backed 33 | 66c | 141.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked WATERMELON | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 33 | 53c | 94.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…0acbbacked WATERMELON | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c22…12c4backed WATERMELON | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…cf64backed WATERMELON | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed WATERMELON | 36c | 57.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked WATERMELON | 40c | 52.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…7c50backed 33 | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: WATERMELON vs 33 (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: WATERMELON vs 33 - Map 1 WinnerWATERMELON won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.