Tennis · resolved market
Rotterdam Open, Qualification: Hugo Grenier vs Jan Choinski
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeccb1f7c37258b8a71a855f9606e899ca908b592fc93ec37a9f760b9087dfa21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grenierof Grenier, Choinski
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Choinski | 1c | 7,606$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Choinski | 1c | 4,035$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Choinski | 22c | 3,944$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Grenier | 72c | 3,853$2,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.75 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Choinski | 25c | 3,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde29…2c8cbacked Choinski | 41c | 1,150$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Choinski | 49c | 1,022$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.02 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bd…e897backed Grenier | 59c | 800$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Grenier | 73c | 732.52$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.13 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…6f03backed Choinski | 41c | 693$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…6906backed Choinski | 41c | 691$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68fc…ad11backed Choinski | 41c | 691$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…6e59backed Choinski | 41c | 684$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Grenier | 73c | 439.19$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.94 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8de…a500backed Grenier | 59c | 350$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…4921backed Grenier | 59c | 348$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…64f8backed Grenier | 59c | 347$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…b442backed Grenier | 59c | 346$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b36…7ea7backed Grenier | 59c | 345$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…5e8cbacked Grenier | 59c | 345$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…b1b6backed Grenier | 59c | 344$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce4…4b62backed Grenier | 59c | 343$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x109d…9274backed Grenier | 59c | 341$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Grenier | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Choinski | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e5…9401backed Choinski | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Choinski | 46c | 206.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…3236backed Choinski | 53c | 190.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0300…88aebacked Choinski | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46de…9062backed Grenier | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Grenier | 79c | 138$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | -13.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Grenier | 67c | 129.63$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…e4ccbacked Choinski | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 515 | 39.8%205 W · 310 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Choinski | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Grenier | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…6d83backed Grenier | 60c | 91.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Choinski | 48c | 83.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Grenier | 61c | 65.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 136 | 52.9%72 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…01fcbacked Grenier | 61c | 64.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 131 | 58%76 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Choinski | 41c | 63.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Grenier | 72c | 61.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Choinski | 19c | 60.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…e817backed Grenier | 72c | 53.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…fe32backed Choinski | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Grenier | 54c | 47.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Grenier | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…980cbacked Choinski | 36c | 43.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Choinski | 42c | 38.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce1…af41backed Grenier | 80c | 35.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Grenier | 56c | 34.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Grenier | 65c | 33.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Grenier | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…3896backed Grenier | 64c | 31.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Grenier | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Grenier | 63c | 19.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.