Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecd581ca7ed867bbb5c61fb2d1c28374245fc20da2c24aded784df8050e254a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FlyQuestof Cloud9, FlyQuest
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Cloud9 | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 675 | 52.4%354 W · 321 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked FlyQuest | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.99 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked FlyQuest | 49c | 2,125$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.74 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Cloud9 | 51c | 1,186$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.86 | 481 | 43.2%208 W · 273 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…bd9abacked Cloud9 | 67c | 665.79$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c3…55a3backed Cloud9 | 51c | 530$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.25 | 115 | 47.8%55 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed FlyQuest | 30c | 498$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.38 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e3…c540backed FlyQuest | 40c | 315$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked FlyQuest | 50c | 230$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 197 | 58.9%116 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Cloud9 | 48c | 209.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…a7d5backed Cloud9 | 50c | 202.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 253 | 45.8%116 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa706…d4dabacked Cloud9 | 51c | 201.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Cloud9 | 50c | 200.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…74adbacked FlyQuest | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Cloud9 | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 413 | 43.8%181 W · 232 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked Cloud9 | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Cloud9 | 52c | 140$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 808 | 32.9%266 W · 542 L | -43.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…be9dbacked FlyQuest | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 268 | 56%150 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…3668backed FlyQuest | 53c | 93.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Cloud9 | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 237 | 48.5%115 W · 122 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b4…2ce6backed Cloud9 | 56c | 87.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked FlyQuest | 43c | 64.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -19.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked FlyQuest | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 464 | 52.4%243 W · 221 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…b135backed Cloud9 | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76a…47c0backed Cloud9 | 51c | 56.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 287 | 56.1%161 W · 126 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed FlyQuest | 51c | 55.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 594 | 50.2%298 W · 296 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed FlyQuest | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Cloud9 | 47c | 42.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Cloud9 | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 821 | 61%501 W · 320 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked FlyQuest | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Cloud9 | 47c | 33.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 256 | 40.6%104 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…7b79backed FlyQuest | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 576 | 55.9%322 W · 254 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Cloud9 | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 327 | 55.7%182 W · 145 L | +17.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Cloud9 | 56c | 21.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 618 | 49.8%308 W · 310 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…5d14backed Cloud9 | 51c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5)this page
- Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?Yes won
- Game Handicap: C9 (-2.5) vs FlyQuest (+2.5)FlyQuest won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS PlayoffsCloud9 won
- LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 WinnerCloud9 won
- LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 WinnerCloud9 won
- LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 3 WinnerFlyQuest won
- LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 4 WinnerFlyQuest won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.