Mls · resolved market
Will Atlanta United FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecdb9631c04452875bda7c2de00a766c337f40259943c46d4453adbd2cb15653
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,980 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 45c | 3,023$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.03 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 28c | 1,350$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 69c | 1,242$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.16 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 1,222$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.59 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,141$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.02 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 27c | 513.95$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.08 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 65c | 438$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.88 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 52c | 400.39$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.84 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 45c | 396.75$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.64 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977c…8c15backed Yes | 28c | 192$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 45c | 144$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Yes | 30c | 100.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +66%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 28c | 91.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 68c | 85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 25c | 72.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x874f…b0a5backed No | 73c | 71.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6398…0485backed No | 73c | 63.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed No | 59c | 58.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…9c4fbacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 53.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…bad0backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked Yes | 76c | 20.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d0…904ebacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlanta United FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.