Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd6fe1539850de734d0033e8eb7bda9541327b34b809efb8a7b53f59398c1190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05d8…31cfbacked No | 77c | 6,520$4,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 1,649$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.41 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 28c | 1,471$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.86 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 1,176$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.11 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 24c | 1,086$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.84 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 26c | 982$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.9 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 954.08$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.67 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…9bf0backed No | 73c | 706.76$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.83 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 28c | 503.17$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.59 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 26c | 336.88$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 250.6$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked No | 74c | 228.75$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 72c | 206.89$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 72c | 196.21$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…431dbacked Yes | 29c | 190.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…a0f5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 80c | 99.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 15c | 90.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 78c | 89.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 73c | 86.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 78c | 81.16$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 21c | 75.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 74c | 71.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 28c | 54.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 50.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 26c | 48.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked No | 73c | 43.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9a01backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1508…5760backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…bad0backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 70c | 14.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will Atlanta United FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.